Centre for Petroleum, Energy Economics and Law http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/8 2026-04-09T06:58:35Z 2026-04-09T06:58:35Z OLASUNKANMI, AKEEM OLABANJI http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1261 2022-02-18T08:20:43Z 2021-09-01T00:00:00Z

STRUCTURAL BREAKS AND ASYMMETRIC ANALYSES OF CO2 EMISSIONS, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN NIGERIA OLASUNKANMI, AKEEM OLABANJI Energy consumption is a leading cause of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Previous studies have addressed either the link between economic growth and energy consumption or economic growth and CO2 emissions and largely ignored the investigation of both relationships in a single framework. Also, the structural break and asymmetric effects of the relationship at the disaggregated level remained largely unexplored. This study was therefore designed to investigate the structural breaks and asymmetric nature of economic growth and energy consumption on CO2 emissions in Nigeria at the aggregate and disaggregated level in a single framework. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis provided the framework. It considered the dynamic effects of economic growth, energy consumption on the emissions from aggregate CO2 and the disaggregated components of coal, natural gas and petroleum products emissions using annual data between 1970 and 2017. Data were sourced from the World Bank World Development Indicator. The Dickey-Fuller with Generalised Least Squares detrending (DFGLS) and Ng-Perron (NP) tests were utilised to investigate the order of integration of the variables. The auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the Non-linear Auto-regressive Distributed Lag techniques (NARDL) that took cognisance of short and long run relationships were employed. The analysis employed structural break unit root test and the multiple break date regression test to reflect the potentials of the structural shift. The asymmetric effects of economic growth and energy consumption on CO2 emissions were analysed by differentiating between the partial sums of positive and negative shocks using the Wald tests (WSR and WLR). The coefficients were analysed at . The DFGLS and NP stationarity tests revealed a mixed order of integration of the variables. While some variables were stationary at levels, others were found stationary at first difference. The symmetric result showed that higher economic activities were responsible for higher CO2 emission in the short run ( =0.21) and long run ( =0.71), while energy consumption increased emission only in the short run ( =0.24). There was significant and increasing impact of economic growth on emissions from coal in the short run ( =1.60) and long run ( =2.96). The asymmetric result showed that economic growth was responsible for higher CO2 emission in the short run ( =0.59) and long run ( =2.24), while energy consumption increased emission in the short run ( =1.87) and long run ( =5.24). However, economic decline was responsible for reduced CO2 emission in the short run ( =0.86) and long run ( =2.74). There was significant and increasing impact of economic growth on emissions from coal only in the short run ( =1.54). Accounting for structural break, economic growth increased CO2 emission in the short run ( =0.15) and long run ( =0.24). The Wald test revealed the presence of asymmetries in the aggregate economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emission nexus (WSR=4.74; WLR=3.21) and coal emission (WSR=5.39). Economic growth and energy consumption exhibited significant asymmetric and structural breaks on CO2 emission at the aggregate and disaggregated level in Nigeria. Appropriate domestic policies and institutional arrangements are required to reduce carbon emission in the production process.

2021-09-01T00:00:00Z OGUNLEYE, OLUTOSIN ADEBAYO http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1259 2022-02-18T08:14:25Z 2021-08-01T00:00:00Z

TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER PROJECTS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA OGUNLEYE, OLUTOSIN ADEBAYO Electricity supply in Nigeria is far below its demand with an all-time peak power generation of 5,420.30 MW as against estimated demand of over 30,000 MW. Bridging the electricity Demand-Supply gap in a sustainable manner requires the utilisation of renewable energy that supports both grid-tied and distributed technology. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies offer such solution. Literature is however limited on the feasibility and economic viability of CSP technologies in Northern Nigeria. More so, despite the vast direct normal irradiance endowment in Northern Nigeria and the high efficiencies of thermal energy storage associated with CSP, the technology is yet to be incorporated into the electricity generation mix in Nigeria. This study was therefore designed to conduct a techno-economic mapping of CSP technologies across widely selected locations in Northern Nigeria. The Theory on Solar Radiation formed the framework. Data comprised an 18-year (2001-2018) meteorological records from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and the European Union Photovoltaic Geographic Information System. A comparative analysis of ten locations in Northern Nigeria was conducted using the Angstrom-Page and Hargreaves-Samani equations in linear, quadratic, and cubic forms. The top five locations suitable for CSP deployment were identified through a weighted approach, and solar radiation models were developed for them. Typical Meteorological Year 3 (TMY3) data were subsequently developed from Finkelstein-Schafer statistics to simulate energy output and Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) or break-even cost. This study also determined optimal concentrator, through comparative analysis of variants of Parabolic trough concentrator (PTC) model of CSP, and other system requirements using the System Advisor Model (SAM) Software. Two locations (Maiadua 13°08'54"N, 8°13'41"E and Malam-Fatori13°40'59"N,13°19'59"E) were suitable for a 100 MW CSP plants, while the other three (Machina 13°08'11"N,10°02'57"E, Gada 13°46'32"N, 5°39'47"E and Zaria 11°11′N, 8°14'28"E) were found suitable for 50 MW CSP plants. The annual estimated energy outputs from the five locations were 341,702,879KWh, 323,484,204 kWh, 179,176,312 kWh, 170,673,093kWh and 155,710,024kWh, while the estimated LCOE of the proposed plants were US¢15.7/kWh, US¢15.8/kWh, US¢14.7/kWh, US¢15.4/kWh and US¢16.5/kWh for Maiadua, Malam-Fatori, Machina, Gada, and Zaria, respectively. Sites within latitudes 13°N and 14°N were suited for the deployment of CSP in the region. Furthermore, Sky Fuel Sky Trough 80-mm OD receiver was the preferred concentrator, Therminol VP-1 was the preferred heat transfer fluid, and HITEC Solar Salt the preferred thermal energy storage medium. The CSP plants could only be sited when and where the security situation permitted. Five locations in Northern Nigeria can accommodate and efficiently deploy 50 MW to 100 MW CSP plants. Thus, a sustainable model of electricity generation capable of supporting industrial applications in an environmentally friendly manner has been formulated. Government should support CSP investments in Northern Nigeria through favourable power purchase agreements and feed-in-tariffs.

2021-08-01T00:00:00Z ONYEUCHE, Emmanuel Ikechukwu http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1257 2022-02-18T08:09:45Z 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z

HOUSEHOLDS’ WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR IMPROVED QUALITY OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN SELECTED CITIES IN NIGERIA ONYEUCHE, Emmanuel Ikechukwu Power outages and blackouts characterise household electricity supply despite the desire of Nigerians to have improved quality of electricity supply that is reliable with the appropriate level of voltage and where outages will not last more than a few hours daily. Households’ willingness to pay (WTP) is a requirement for the attainment of improved quality of electricity supply. Literature on attainment of stable electricity supply have focused more on the technical and organisational requirements with little attention to customers’ willingness to pay for such service most especially in Nigeria. This study, was therefore designed to investigate the determinants of household willingness to pay for improved quality of electricity supply and how much they are willing to pay in selected cities in Nigeria. The Random Utility Theory guided this study while a survey research method was adopted. Four major cities namely: Abuja, Ibadan, Lagos and Port Harcourt were purposively selected.A discrete choice with follow-up elicitation technique and a structured questionnaire focusing on social economic characteristics, quality of existing electricity supply and willingness to pay for improved quality of electricity supply was randomly administered to 680 households (Abuja =170, Ibadan = 170, Lagos =170 and Port Harcourt =170), identified using the statistical sample size determination formula. Descriptive statistics was used to analyse the impact of electricity supply on household welfare, while Ordered Probit model helped in identifying the factors that determine household willingness to pay (WTP) for improved quality of electricity supply, and Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) was used to determine how much households were willing to pay for the improved quality of electricity supply. Values from analysis were validated at 0.05 level of significance. More than 25% of households in the different cities spent between N10,000-N20,000 in repairing or replacing damaged home appliances due to power instability, while more than 50% indicated that poor quality of electricity supply in form of inadequate supply and fluctuating voltage from the electricity distribution companies adversely affected their daily activities and consequently, their welfare. Household income (β= 0.115), reliability of supply (β= 0.243) and cost of alternative supply (β= 0.199) were the determinants of household WTP for improved quality of electricity supply. Households in Abuja, Lagos, Ibadan and Port Harcourt were willing to pay an average amount of N36.00±14.95, N36.30±14.15, N38.30±11.43 and N50.20±10.96 per kWh of electricity respectively. This is more than one and half times the current tariffs they pay in each of these cities if the quality of electricity supply improves. Household income, reliability of supply and cost of alternative supply influenced households’ willingness to pay for improved quality of electricity in the selected cities. The welfare cost of unreliable power supply is high, and influenced households’ willingness to pay for improved quality of electricity supply. It is imperative thatthe electricity distribution companies as well as other stakeholders invest on infrastructure to improve the quality of electricity supply in Nigeria.

2021-02-01T00:00:00Z WAHAB, LUKMAN http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1255 2022-02-18T08:01:54Z 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF NIGERIA PETROLEUM FISCAL SYSTEMS USING ROYALTY AND TAX OPTIMISATION MODELS TO DRIVE INVESTMENTS WAHAB, LUKMAN Declining Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry (NOGI) has been attributed to inappropriateness of the country’s petroleum fiscal regimes and tax systems. Extant literature identified knowledge gap relating to the analytical measurement of the relationship between key fiscal terms and economic metrics, which provides understanding of the effects of the proposed Petroleum Industry Fiscal Bill (PIFB), 2012 on FDI. This study was designed to compare Nigeria’s current and post PIFB fiscal regimes against selected world fiscal arrangements to determine if the proposed legislation, when enacted will improve competitiveness and FDI in the NOGI. The study, adopted a quantitative research design, based on petroleum taxation theory used purposive sampling technique to select five fixed offshore crude production projects, labeled PRJI, PRJ2, PRJ3, PRJ4 and PRJ5; of an international oil company operating in Nigeria based on Joint Venture model with concession in shallow waters with less than 50 meters (m) depth and crude production uplifts of less than 40,000 barrel per day (kbd). The selected projects were used to develop Fiscal Terms Optimisation Model (FTOM) comprising - Discounted Cash Flow Rate (DCFR), Net Present Value (NPV), Profit-to-Investment Ratio (PIR), Maximum Cash Impairment (MCI), Actual Value Profit (AVP), and Payout that were combined with Global Competitive Index (GCI) from fifteen countries based on their competitiveness and global regional distribution to develop a meta-model that was used to determine Optimal Royalty and Tax Competitive Window (ORTCW) that predicts the relationship between the various economic metrics (DCFR, NPV, PIR, MCI, AVP, Payout) and fiscal terms that drive investment decisions. The characteristics of the selected projects were (kbd, m) [PRJ1(26.1, 27.13); PRJ2(20.3, 28.04); PRJ3(36.4, 28.04); PRJ4(6.5, 27.43) and PRJ5(18.8, 42.67)]. The output FTOM data were DCFR(%)[(21.0 - 197.0);(13.0 - 492.0);(11.0 - 479.0);(35.0 - 346.0) and (21.0 -160.0)]; NPV(12%) in million dollars ($M)[(56.32 – 630.24);(3.44 -64.32); (2.20 - 47.24);(10.09 - 194.75) and (1.40 - 20.56)]; PIR [(2.4 – 10.7); (0.3 - 1.2); (0.2 - 1.1); (1.2 - 6.8) and (0.9 - 3.8)]; MCI($M) [([-34.9] – [-26.2]); ([-10.1] – [-2.8]); ([-10.1] – [-2.8]); ([-5.5] – [-4.2]) and ([-7.8] – [-3.7])]; AVP($M) [(925.1 - 4287.3); (57.7 - 101.8); (15.0 - 71.8); (79.2 - 465.2) and (8.4 - 35.7)]; PYT in years [(2.3 – 4.9); (1.2 - 3.3); (1.2 - 3.1); (2.2 - 3.1) and (1.5 - 2.0)]. There was a positive relationship between Royalty(R), Tax(T) and Profitability indices with correlation coefficients ranges: DCFR:R(0.65); DCFR:T(0.96); NPV12:R(0.63); NPV12:T(0.97); MCI:R(0.45); MCI:T(1.00); PIR:R(0.62); PIR:T(0.97); AVP:R(0.62); AVP:T(0.97); PYT:R(0.57) and PYT:T(0.90). The ORTCW showed that optimum royalty and tax rate for competitiveness were (0.15 - 0.20) and (0.28 - 0.55) respectively, while the current and post PIFB royalty and tax rate for the NOGI obtained were (0.19 – 0.31) and (0.80 – 0.85) respectively, this shows that Nigeria’s current and post PIFB fiscal and tax rates were not competitive. The current and proposed fiscal and tax regime of the Nigerian oil and gas sector are unlikely to drive investment, improve competitiveness and foreign direct investment in the sector and a review of the proposed Petroleum Industry Fiscal Bill is recommended.

2021-02-01T00:00:00Z